Kennedy in Bush first took office in They claimed there was a conspiracy by the international community to atomise the Congo and neutralise Kabila like they had Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. This assassination attempt never happened. And since that January, many more things have not happened.
Foremost among them is the implementation of the Saint Sylvester Agreement. This is the deal that was settled between the government and opposition on 31 December Facilitated by the Conference of Catholic Bishops, the agreement contains a commitment to respect the Constitution.
It also includes several references to the fact that Kabila, who has been in office since , will not stand for a third term. Instead, it says he will lead a transition government and hand over to a successor to be elected by the end of On the one hand, the Saint Sylvester Agreement was an important achievement with consensus and concessions from all sides.
There had been widespread protests through , leading to dozens of deaths, and the deal allowed a period of fragile calm. It was also the result of a fully Congolese process, mediated by perhaps the last national institution to retain a degree of moral authority.
But on the other hand, it remains a vulnerable construct. The deal has several blind spots and gaps to be filled in through later negotiations. It was agreed between a divided ruling coalition and divided opposition. And it was made in a country with a long tradition of people signing deals without intending to respect them. It will be hard to implement. We will let the government led by the opposition govern and organise the elections.
